Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
